Methodology: The cost modeling process is the development of a design & scope of work and predicting the likely cost at the time of construction. This is a progression from less information and more assumptions in the early stages to all information and no assumptions at the last stage. This is often referred to as the “Bull’s Eye” method.
Conceptual Modeling is the process of taking a small amount of information and creating a coherent model of the probable building cost based on many assumptions that will determine accuracy. This is the outer ring of the "Bull’s Eye" method which trades accuracy and information for speed and understanding. This level of Cost Modeling often relies on a Cost / Square Foot approach where specific information is not available. This early phase has the lowest level of accuracy and highest level of assumptions.
Design Development Modeling is the process of using space programming information from the Client that has been translated into a set of drawings and requirements. This information is then translated into material quantities in as much detail as possible and converted to likely construction cost. Where information is not known, assumptions and allowances are used to complete the probable cost. This is the second ring of the "Bull’s Eye" Cost Modeling method. This design phase has higher accuracy and lower assumptions.
Construction Drawing Modeling is the process of using a set of construction drawings and specifications to fully take off material & equipment quantities and translate them into probable construction cost. At this point, the drawings have been reviewed and approved by the Client and most, if not all, allowances and assumptions have been resolved. This is the third ring of the "Bull’s Eye" Cost Modeling method. With design completed, the level of accuracy is high and the level of assumptions is low. Scope is defined at this level and the final task is getting market pricing from Subcontractors.
Guaranteed Maximum Price or Lump Sum is the process of using a set of completed construction drawings and specifications to bid the scope of work to a group of willing Subcontractors. At this point, the drawings have been approved and allowances and assumptions have been resolved and a firm price is realized. This is the "Bull’s Eye".
Contingency Process:
Contingency: a. happening by chance or unforeseen causes b. subject to chance or unseen effects: unpredictable c. intended for use in circumstances not completely foreseen.
The use of a Contingency makes the Cost Modeling process more accurate & reliable by creating an Allowance to account for unknowns. As the drawings and specifications, timing and market conditions become known; the Contingency can be reduced to an appropriate level.
The graph outlines typical ranges of contingency by stage of design & bidding.